000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE MAR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 04N102W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N102W TO 04N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED 
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS E OF 90W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WERE NEAR MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE THIS MORNING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVED E OF THE WESTERN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE...HOWEVER WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT 
WHILE ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE DOWN TO 7 FT OR LESS. LOOKING AHEAD... 
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... 
THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 30N140W. THIS FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT 
WHILE NEARBY WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST 
OUTSIDE THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 
26N125W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 16N110W 
AND TO THE SW TO NEAR 20N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ 
TO 15N.

A DECAYING SET OF PRIMARILY NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS OF 8-9 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE 
FROM 14N99W TO 07N96W TO 03.4S105W TO 03.4S120W TO 10N110W TO 
14N99W. SOME CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS MERGING WITH THIS SET 
NW SWELL. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE WED 
NIGHT.

ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 19-21 SECONDS 
ON THE LEADING EDGE AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-13 FT IS W 
OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 09N130W TO 04N140W...HIGHEST OVER THE 
NW HALF OF THAT AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AT 16 
FT BY 24 HOURS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE WATERS...THEN WILL DECAY 
BACK TO 13 FT BY 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE THE EDGE OF THE 8 FT OR 
GREATER NW SWELL WILL REACH TO 110W BY 24 HOURS...THEN WILL BACK 
OFF AND DECAY BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY