000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041500
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE MAR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 05N90W TO 03N98W WHERE 
LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
06N117W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 240 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 
119W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE 1021 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 27N125W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 
17N107W AND SW TO NEAR 20N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE 
ITCZ TO 15N.

A DECAYING SET OF NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA W OF 105W...AND REACHING AS FAR E AS 98W. THE 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...WITH SEAS EXPECTED 
TO DROP BELOW 8 FT BY WED NIGHT. 

ANOTHER NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS 
THE NW WATERS...WITH MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS TO 13 FT. THIS AREA OF 
SWELL WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT DECAYS THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. YET ANOTHER SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS 
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW WATERS MIDWEEK... WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO NEAR 15 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BY WED NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FUNNELED THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE ADDED 
COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW HAS INCREASED WINDS TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS WILL DECREASE AND WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS 
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD...GFS MODEL SHOWS TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS REACHING 
NEAR GALE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRIDAY 
EVENING.

$$
AL