000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC TUE MAR 4 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH SNAKES FROM FROM 02N80W TO 01N86W TO 03N92W 
TO 02N87W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N97W TO 05N106W TO 04N113W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
05N87W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N124W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING 
SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 20N. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND 
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N.

A DECAYING SET OF NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA W OF 105W...AND REACHING AS FAR E AS 100W. THE 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...WITH SEAS EXPECTED 
TO DROP BELOW 8 FT BY WED NIGHT. 

ANOTHER NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN FAR NW WATERS...WITH 
MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS TO 15 FT. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL SPREAD SE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT DECAYS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
YET ANOTHER SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS IS FORECAST TO REACH 
THE FAR NW WATERS MIDWEEK... WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 15 FT 
OVER FAR NW WATERS BY WED NIGHT.
 
WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
NIGHTS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH IS THE PEAK TIME OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. 

LOOKING AHEAD...GFS MODEL SHOWS TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS REACHING 
30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY 
DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS 
WERE INDICATED DURING THIS PERIOD INITIALLY...BUT MOST RECENT 
MODEL GUIDANCE AT 18Z AND 00Z HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD...AWAY 
FROM POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER TEHUANTEPEC GALE WIND EVENT.

$$
MUNDELL