000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC TUE MAR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 02N97W TO 04N109W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 
93W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 29N125W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N110W AND SW TO NEAR 20N140W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N.

A DECAYING SET OF NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA W OF 105W...AND REACHING AS FAR E AS 100W. THE 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY WED NIGHT. 

ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS COVERING THE FAR NW 
WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING NEAR 16 FT. THIS SWELL HAS 
PEAKED AND WILL SUBSIDE WHILE SPREADING SE ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. YET ANOTHER SET OF LARGE LONG 
PERIOD SWELLS IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW WATERS MIDWEEK... 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 15 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BY WED 
NIGHT.
 
WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
NIGHTS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH IS THE PEAK TIME OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. 

LOOKING AHEAD...GFS MODEL SHOWS TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS REACHING 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRIDAY 
EVENING.

$$
AL