000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032104
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC MON MAR 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 02N98W TO 02N101W. 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 04N110W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N122W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N110W AND SW TO NEAR 20N140W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N...AS NOTED RECENT 
IN ASCAT PASS.

A DECAYING SET OF NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA W OF 110W...AND REACHING AS FAR E AS 105W. THE 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY MIDWEEK. 

ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS COVERING THE NW WATERS NW 
OF A LINE 30N134W TO 22N140W WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING NEAR 16 
FT. THIS SWELL HAS PEAKED AND WILL SUBSIDE WHILE SPREADING SE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
NIGHTS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 20 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
NIGHTS DURING THE PEAK TIME OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 

LOOKING AHEAD...GFS MODEL SHOWS TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS REACHING 
35 KT GALE FORCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN 
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

$$
AL