000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC MON MAR 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 02N95W TO 02N101W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N101W TO BEYOND 07N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION... 

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 00N120W. THIS HAD BEEN 
SUPPORTING AREAS OF MODEST SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 120W BUT THIS HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED 
AS LOWER LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS LIMITED. DEEP LAYER 
RIDGING FOLLOWING TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 
1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 27N125W. THIS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N...AS NOTED RECENT IN 
ASCAT PASS AND TOGA-TAO BUOY OBSERVATIONS. 

AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND 11 UTC SUPPORTED THE WAVEWATCH 
INITIALIZATION SHOWING SEAS 9 TO 11 FT PERSISTING MAINLY N OF 
06N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. GLOBAL 
MODEL INTIALIZATIONS ARE CONTAINED IN AN AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN A LINE 
FROM MANZANILLO MEXICO TO 0N130W AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 30N125W 
TO 15N140W. WAVE MODELS INDICATE THIS NW SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 
8 FT BY MID WEEK AS IT SPREADS FARTHER TO THE SE TO 100W. 

ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS ALREADY ENTERING THE AREA 
FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...ENCOMPASSING THE AREA NW OF A LINE 
FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLE OF 
SPURTS OF S TO SW WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KT...MOSTLY NW OF 
30N140W...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE 
WEST. 

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NW 
MEXICO WILL ENHANCING TROUGHING OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO LATER 
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MIGRATE FROM 
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TUE. THE TIGHTENING 
GRADIENT AFTER THESE SYSTEMS PASS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG 
NW FLOW ALONG THE THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE TUE. 

WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
NIGHTS. A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM AROUND 12 UTC...JUST WHEN THE 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW WAS AT A MAXIMUM...INDICATED GAP WINDS 
MAY BE REACHING AS HIGH AS 25 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS 
TREND WILL REPEAT TONIGHT WITH WEAKER FLOW TUE NIGHT/WED 
MORNING. 

LOOKING AHEAD...GFS MODEL SHOWS TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS REACHING 
35 KT GALE FORCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN 
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN