000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN MAR 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N91W TO 00N101W TO 06N120W TO 06N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION... 

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR LOS MOCHIS MEXICO 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN 
TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND TOWARD 20N117W. A FEW MID AND HIGH 
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE 
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS LIFTING NE THROUGH N CENTRAL 
MEXICO...AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATER 
TODAY. SW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC 
WATERS OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA ARE VEERING MORE W TO NW AHEAD 
OF 1018 MB HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONG TO 
GALE FORCE WINDS EVIDENT YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE 
WATERS N OF 20N HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS NOTED IN AN 
ASCAT PASS FROM 05 UTC. ALTIMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 15 FT OVER PERSIST OVER THESE 
WATERS...MAINLY DUE TO NW SWELL. 

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0640 UTC INDICATED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AT 
LEAST 20 KT NEAR 30N140W...ON THE SE EDGE OF A COMPLEX STORM 
SYSTEM OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTERED WELL N OF HAWAII NEAR 
46N167W. THE S TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH 
TONIGHT...COVERING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 26N AND W OF 135W SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THESE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH LATER MON AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS TO THE 
NE. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE TO THE NW OF THE AREA 
MON INTO TUE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS TO THE 
AREA N OF 28N W OF 138W. 

THE NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY DECAY OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TO 100W. ANOTHER ROUND OF 
NW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH 
SEAS REACHING 17 FT BY MON NEAR 30N140W.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 120W IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...ROUGHLY FROM 06N TO 
12N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROUGH AT THIS TIME. 

WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
NIGHTS. WINDS WILL REACH 25 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY 
THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING. A WEAKER PULSE 
OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN