000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SAT MAR 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
A STRONG OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N128W 
977 MB THIS EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH 
30N118W TO 20N126W THEN DISSIPATING FRONT TO 16N132W. ASCAT PASS 
AT 1806Z...LAST OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM...REVEALED WINDS TO 
50 KT IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WELL N OF OUR 
AREA...WHILE GALES TO 35 KT WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND 
EXTENDED S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 29N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 
WINDS ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE AS 
OF 0000Z...BUT WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING UP FOR THE TIME BEING. 
NO NEW ALTIMETER PASSES OR SHIP-BASED SEA HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN 
AVAILABLE IN THE LIKELY AREA OF HIGHEST SEAS.  HOWEVER...THE 
LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM LIKELY HAS DRIVEN 
SEAS TO 25 FT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR N PORTIONS...WITH SEAS 
TO 12 FT AND HIGHER COVERING MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THIS CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD WEAKEN ON 
SAT...AND DIE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN. AS 
THIS OCCURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS SUN. 
GALE WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARE EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE TONIGHT AND 
END BY SAT MORNING. LARGE...12 FOOT OR GREATER...NW SWELL WILL 
DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT.  THIS WILL 
PRODUCE VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG THE PACIFIC 
COASTLINES AND OFFSHORE REEFS...INDUCING DANGEROUS LIFE 
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ON MON...THE NEXT NW SWELL EVENT WILL 
BEGIN OVER THE NW CORNER...THOUGH THIS ONE SHOULD NOT BE AS 
SIGNIFICANT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA 03N102W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 08N118W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS EAST OF 87W.

...DISCUSSION... 

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE SE OF THE 
COLD FRONT NEAR 21N117W IS EXPECTED DISSIPATE BY LATE 
SAT...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 20-22N ACROSS THE AREA. 
THE RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGE TO 
THE NORTH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH IS PRODUCING ONLY A SMALL 
AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 
130W. THOUGH THE RIDGE REBUILDS SOME NEXT WEEK...THE TRADEWINDS 
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG BREEZE CONDITION FOR THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
SW FLOW IS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS 
EVENING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS PEAKING 
AT 20-25 KT EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SAT THROUGH SUN 
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL 
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

GAP WINDS...MODERATE TO FRESH PULSES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT...WITH A STRONGER PULSE TO 25 KT EXPECTED 
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AFTERNOON. 

NO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.  LATE NEXT WEEK...THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...MAY HERALD THE 
NEXT SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR THE GULF.

MODELS USED FOR THE WIND FORECASTS WERE A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS.  
THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH III BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECASTS WERE USED FOR THE WAVEHEIGHT PREDICTIONS.

$$
LANDSEA