000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC FRI FEB 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
A POWERFUL AND DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE 
CONTINUES N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N131W 974 MB THIS AFTERNOON WITH 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH 30N119W TO 21N127W THEN 
DISSIPATING FRONT TO 17N134W. LATEST ASCAT PASS AT 1806Z 
REVEALED WINDS TO 50 KT IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THIS STORM 
SYSTEM...WELL N OF OUR AREA...WHILE GALES TO 35 KT WERE 
OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDED S INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA TO 29N. THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM HAS 
DRIVEN SEAS TO 24 FT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NW 
PORTIONS...WITH SEAS TO 15 FT AND HIGHER ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS 
AND ASSOCIATED NW SWELL YIELDING SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT W OF LINE 
FROM 30N118W TO 10N140W. THIS CYCLONE WILL MOVE SE AND GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DIE ALONG THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
SAT THROUGH SAT EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL 
PORTIONS SUN. GALE WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARE 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE 
TONIGHT AND END BY SAT MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE 
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...AND PRODUCE VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COASTLINES AND OFFSHORE REEFS...INDUCING DANGEROUS LIFE 
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA 03N102W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 08N118W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS EAST OF 87W.

...DISCUSSION... 
AT UPPER LEVELS...THE DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE 
DESCRIBED ABOVE EXTENDS A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS S-SE TO 
30N127W THEN ARCHES GRADUALLY S THEN SW TO 11N148W. SE OF THIS A 
CUT OFF CYCLONE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THAT HAS PERSISTED 
FOR DAYS IS FINALLY FILLING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH FROM 17N122W 
TO ALONG THE EQUATOR AT 127W. A SHARP RIDGE AXIS PREVAILS E OF 
THIS FROM THE TROPICAL W WATERS ALONG 90W N-NW ACROSS MEXICO AND 
INTO THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S. WEAK WINDS AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
INDUCED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 90W ARE SUSTAINING DEEP 
CONVECTION N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. 

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAKENING HIGH PRES SE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 
NE TO SW RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED EASTWARD THROUGH SAT BY 
THE COLD FRONT AND COLLAPSE ENTIRELY. THIS WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN 
IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS N OF 
THE ITCZ W OF 125W. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA 
OVER THE WEEKEND...A WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE 
REGION ALONG ABOUT 24N. 
 
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS 
EVENING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS PEAKING 
AT 20-30 KT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH 
SAT THROUGH SUN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SE 
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.

GAP WINDS...MODERATE TO FRESH PULSES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT...WITH A STRONGER PULSE TO 25 EXPECTED SAT 
NIGHT INTO SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$
STRIPLING/LANDSEA