000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281609 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI FEB 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A POWERFUL AND DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE CONTINUES N OF THE AREA NEAR 36.5N132.5W 969 MB THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH 30N122W TO 19N133W THEN DISSIPATING FRONT TO 16.5N140W. OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES REVEALED WINDS TO 55 KT IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WELL N OF THE AREA...WHILE GALES TO 40 KT WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDED S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 27N. THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM HAS DRIVEN SEAS TO 25 FT THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS...WITH SEAS TO 15 FT AND HIGHER ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS AND ASSOCIATED NW SWELL YIELDING SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT W OF LINE FROM 30N118W TO 25N121W TO 08N130W. THIS CYCLONE WILL MOVE SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DIE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY THEN INTO N PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY SAT THEN MOVE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT THROUGH SAT EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS SUN. GALE WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE TONIGHT AND END BY SAT MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND PRODUCE VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINES AND OFFSHORE REEFS...INDUCING DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO 02N80W TO 06N87W TO 06N92W TO 04N102W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 07N116W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE DESCRIBED ABOVE EXTENDS A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS S-SE TO 30N127W THEN ARCHES GRADUALLY S THEN SW TO 11N148W. SE OF THIS A CUT OFF CYCLONE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR DAYS IS FINALLY FILLING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH FROM 17N122W TO ALONG THE EQUATOR AT 127W. A SHARP RIDGE AXIS PREVAILS E OF THIS FROM THE TROPICAL W WATERS ALONG 90W N-NW ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE DESSERT SW OF THE U.S. WEAK WINDS AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 90W ARE SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAKENING HIGH PRES SE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH NE TO SW RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED EASTWARD THROUGH SAT BY THE COLD FRONT AND COLLAPSE ENTIRELY. THIS WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND...A WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ALONG ABOUT 24N. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 20-30 KT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SAT THROUGH SUN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT AS IS PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH PULSES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT...WITH A STRONGER PULSE TO 25 EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. $$ STRIPLING