000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272110
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC THU FEB 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 
30N132W TO 21N140W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY N OF 26N 
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 25N W OF THE FRONT. SEAS 
ARE CURRENTLY REACHING 17 FT W OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL FURTHER 
INCREASE TO 40 KT N OF 25N W OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND 
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY FRI MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST W OF 
THE FRONT THROUGH SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GALE 
FORCE WINDS AND THE LONG FETCH...SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 23 
FT IN NW SWELL BY FRI IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND THE 
FRONT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N92W TO 05N101W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 08N116W TO 04N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 25N118W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER 
DATA INDICATE NW TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 
THE HIGH PRES AND THE TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL 
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF THE 
APPROACHING FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND ITCZ IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO 
MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY 
LATE FRI AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS PEAKING 
TO 25 TO 30 KT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE 
AREA...WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
10N W OF 115W BY SAT AFTERNOON. 

GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND EARLY 
FRI MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WEAK HIGH PRES 
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH 
PULSES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND 
FRI NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER PULSE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN 
MORNING. 

$$
AL