000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC THU FEB 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEEP 996 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
32N125W TO 20N145W THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND OF 
HAWAII WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT 
WILL BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N WEST 
OF 125W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. A 06 UTC ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED WINDS TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 27N141W. A 
CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE SAME 
AREA. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS AND THE LONG 
FETCH...SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 22 FT IN NW SWELL BY FRI IN 
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 135W. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE E OF THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT 
WILL CONTINUE TO COVER A PORTION OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT 
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N82W TO 04N95W TO 
05N105W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N105W TO 07N115W TO 03N130W TO 
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG 145W N OF 20N 
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS EASTWARD TOWARD THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI...SUPPORTING THE COLD 
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF 125W. THIS 
MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT N 
OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. 

FARTHER TO THE EAST WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 25N120W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE NW TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE 
COAST BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST. 
THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS IN 
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. 

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
CURRENTLY. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY LATE FRI AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH 
WINDS PEAKING TO 25 TO 30 KT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE AND THE 
FRONT WEAKENS. GIVEN THE LIMITED FETCH AND DURATION SEAS WILL 
NOT QUITE REACH 8 FT BY FRI NIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W...WITH 
COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 
30N118W TO 10N130W TO 05N140W.

LOOKING AHEAD...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER 
THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 110W BY LATE SAT INTO SUN...ALLOWING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FROM GENERALLY 10N TO 20N W OF 
120W.

DIVERGENCE ALOFT RELATED TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS IS INTERACTING WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH TO ENHANCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND EARLY 
FRI MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WEAK HIGH PRES 
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH 
PULSES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND 
FRI NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER PULSE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN