000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262122
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC WED FEB 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THU 
MORNING EXTENDING FROM 30N137W TO 25N140W WITH WINDS TO GALE 
FORCE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT 
EASTWARD WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND GALE 
FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT EXPECTED N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT THU AND 
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 22 FT IN NW SWELL BY FRI. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE E OF THE FRONT BY LATE THU 
NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO COVER A PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 
THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS WEAK AND ILL DEFINED ACROSS E 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO COLOMBIA AND IS BETTER DESCRIBED AS 
ITCZ. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N87W TO 04N95W TO 05N115W. IT THEN 
RESUMES FROM 05N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1019 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
NEAR 25N118W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
30N128W TO 22N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS INDUCED A SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 07N117W TO 02N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS ONLY ABLE TO SUPPORT 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY THU. NW SWELLS THAT WERE 
USHERED IN BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NW PART 
OF THE AREA WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 15 FT RANGE FOUND NW OF LINE 
FROM 30N122W TO 15N140W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 08N W OF 115W BY FRI 
AFTERNOON. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY THU MORNING 
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA...DISCUSSED IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. 

$$
AL