000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252107
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE FEB 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THU 
MORNING...RAPIDLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. BY THU AFTERNOON...THE 
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N133W TO 22N140W. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND 
ALSO WEST OF THE FRONT BY THU AFTERNOON. A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS 
WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THIS FRONT...WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 15 
FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 05N102W 06N120W. IT THEN RESUMES 
FROM 06N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
NEAR 26N118W. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NW PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 24.5N140W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW HAS INDUCED A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N121W TO 02N123W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TROUGH WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 05N TO 
10N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 05N TO 10N. OTHERWISE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS ONLY 
ABLE TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DIMINISHING TO 
MAINLY MODERATE WINDS. THE COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN A SET OF NW 
SWELLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS IN TO 8 TO 16 FT RANGE 
COVERING THE WATERS NW OF LINE FROM 30N131W TO 22N140W. THE 
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS 
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA...DISCUSSED 
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. 

GAP WINDS...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA INDUCING FRESH TO 
STRONG GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 
WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AND WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT 
OR LESS BY WED AFTERNOON. 

$$
AL