000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC TUE FEB 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N87W TO 05N92W TO 
04N97W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N97W TO 05N112W TO 05N120W TO 
03N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 
11N BETWEEN 109W AND 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW 
CORNER WITH AXIS FROM 30N126W TO 07N126W MOVING E. DIFFLUENT 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING 
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND N MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 05N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 117W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S OF S 
MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM 16N95W TO 3N95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 90W TO 
INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA. 
 
ON THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER FROM 30N137W 
TO 27N140W MOVING E. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN A SWELL TRAIN OF 8 
TO 15 FT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. A REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN 24 HOURS WITH MORE SWELL. A 1018 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N120W AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FOR 48 HOURS.   

IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N118W TO 
04N120W MOVING W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 109W AND 124W. 
                                    
GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. 
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. 

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PANAMA BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT NEAR 6N. THESE MARINE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.  

$$
FORMOSA