000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC MON FEB 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ FROM 07N85W TO 04N110W TO 08N118W TO 09N130W TO 11NN138W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 120W AND 
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS VERY
WEAK S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 20N129W TO 07N132W. ABUNDANT MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 110W. 
A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND RUNS 
FROM 28N140W TO 21N135W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS E OF 
THE TROUGH COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. A 95-
110 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 22N128W 
TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 31N115W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. A 
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SE MEXICO AND THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 10N97W TO THE EQUATOR AT 94W. A RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION...INCLUDING 
CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUPPORTS 
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL 
CYCLONE LOCATED NW OF AREA. THE MAIN FRONT IS NOW CROSSING 
30N140W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT  
NEAR 30N143W. THESE FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. THE MERGED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE 
FORECAST REGION...REACHING FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W TUE AFTERNOON 
AND FROM 30N130W TO 22N140W WED AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS. 
 
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THESE FRONTS...THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS 
WEAKENED ACROSS THE N WATERS AND CURRENTLY COVERS THE REGION N 
OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. A WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1019 MB IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 24N122W BY TUE AFTERNOON.
 
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ONE 
EXTENDS FROM 11N117W TO 07N120W. THE 1754 UTC ASCAT PASS CLEARLY 
SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH 
MAINLY 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 120W. THE SECOND TROUGH GOES 
FROM 15N136W TO 10N139W WITH NO CONVECTION.  
 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MOST OF 
THE WATERS W OF 110W. ADDITIONAL PULSES WILL FOLLOW BY EARLY TUE 
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 14-16 FT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS BY TUE MORNING. 
                                      
GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 18-00 
UTC EACH DAY. 

$$
GR