000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240334 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N87W TO 04N94W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N94W TO 08N112W TO 06N118W TO 09N132W TO 08NN140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA W OF 95W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FAR W PART OF THE FORECAST REGION AND EXTENDS FROM 28N133 TO BEYOND 09N140W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SW MEXICO NEAR 20N101W TO THE EQUATOR AT 98W. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A BROAD RIDGE COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE AND EXTENDS ALONG 18N133W 27N120W ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 07N W OF 110W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 95W...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA...IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS SEEN WITHIN THE RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE BLOWING S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL. SEAS SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 8 FT NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N112W TO 05N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE TROUGH MEETS THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...A WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 118W BY MON EVENING. A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING N OF AREA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION THIS MON. EXPECT INCREASING SW TO S WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N137W TO 27N140W MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE FAR NW CORNER BY MON EVENING...EXTENDING FROM 30N135W TO BEYOND 24N140W BY TUE MORNING...AND FROM 30N132W TO BEYOND 23N140W WED MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA EARLY THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. ADDITIONAL PULSES WILL FOLLOW BY EARLY TUE BUILDING SEAS UP TO 14-15 FT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TUE MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 18-00 UTC EACH DAY. $$ GR