000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232155 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN FEB 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N85W TO 05N96W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N96W TO 08N110W TO 07N116W TO 10N130W TO 09NN140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA W OF 95W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE FAR W PART OF THE FORECAST REGION AND EXTENDS FROM 28N135 TO BEYOND 12N140W. ANOTHER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 21N103W TO THE EQUATOR AT 110W. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A BROAD RIDGE COVERING ROUGHLY BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE AND EXTENDS ALONG 18N135W 26N120W INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N112W. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 07N W OF 110W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 95W...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA...IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS SEEN WITHIN THE RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE BLOWING S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL. SEAS SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 8 FT NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N111W TO 05N115W. SINCE YESTERDAY... CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AND NOW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING N OF AREA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION BY MON. EXPECT INCREASING SW TO S WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N137W TO 28N140W MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE FAR NW CORNER BY MON NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 24N140W BY TUE MORNING...AND FROM 30N133W TO BEYOND 23N140W WED MORNING. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. ADDITIONAL PULSES WILL FOLLOW BY EARLY TUE BUILDING SEAS UP TO 14-15 FT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TUE MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 18-00 UTC EACH DAY. $$ GR