000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT FEB 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 05N90W TO 07N107W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N133W TO 27N135W. W TO SW 
WIND FLOW ALOFT COVER THE AREA N OF 20N. THESE WINDS ARE 
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
REGION E OF 128W THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A 95-
100 KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 19N140W THEN 
CONTINUES ALONG 21N130W TO 17N120W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 21N110W TO 07N100W. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA E OF 100W...INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA...WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. MAINLY 
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT ARE SEEN UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE BLOWING S 
OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN MIXED NE 
AND NW SWELL MAINLY FROM 07N TO 12N W OF 132W. AN ALTIMETER PASS 
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE SEA HEIGHTS...EXPECTED TO 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS EVENING. 

THE LOW PRES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
HAS WEAKENED DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A TROUGH 
IS NOW ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP AND RUNS FROM 
09N107W TO 04N109W. THIS TROUGH IS ONLY GENERATING A FEW 
SHOWERS.
                                      
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO 
IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 
FT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE HAVE 
NOT BEEN ANY SCATTEROMETER PASSES TO VERIFY THESE WIND SPEEDS.  
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS EVENING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE...WITH WINDS 
BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 18-00 UTC EACH DAY. 

$$
GR