000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SAT FEB 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N93W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 05N93W TO 07N103W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 05N113W 
TO 06N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N 
TO 09N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA AT 31N134W MOVING E. SW TO W WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE 
MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION N OF 20N. THESE WINDS ARE 
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N 
WATERS AND BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A CUT-OFF LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 16N115W. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE TROUGH 
ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 102W AND 
115W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
NOTED E OF 105W. THIS RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA.

ON THE SURFACE...1023 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 33N135W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 112W. SEAS 
OF 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE W OF A LINE FROM 
07N140W TO 10N132W TO 14N140W. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS VERIFIED 
THE SEAS. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 
THIS EVENING. 

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 06N107W. 
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF CLOUDS 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. SEAS MAY BUILD 
TO 8 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY 
ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. 20-30 KT WINDS 
AND 8-9 FT SEAS ARE NOTED N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. EXPECT 
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY THIS EVENING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO... FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE...WITH WINDS 
BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 18-00 UTC EACH DAY. 

GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS 
CONTINUE TO SURGE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS 
SHOWING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FT N OF 5N. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS  WILL 
PERSIST TODAY. 

$$
FORMOSA