000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT FEB 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 06N105W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N105W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN AROUND 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W. A DOUBLE ITCZ IS NOTED S OF THE EQUATOR. THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXTENDS FROM 03S92W TO 02S99W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR A DOUBLE ITCZ IS PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...MAINLY DURING LA NINA EVENTS WHEN THE COLD EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE STRONGER. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SW TO W WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION N OF 20N. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N WATERS AND BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N117W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N119W TO THE LOW THEN CONTINUING SE TO ABOUT 11N112W. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 106W AND 114W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED E OF 105W. THIS RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ON THE SURFACE...1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N135W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 112W. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. ANOTHER AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL IS W OF A LINE FROM FROM 06N140W TO 10N130W TO 17N140W. AN ALTIMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF SEAS TO 10 FT JUST N OF THE ITCZ. BOTH AREAS OF SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SAT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER THE RECENT ASCAT PASS AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 130W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 06N105W. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS MAY REACH TO 8 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT HAS ALREADY REACHED THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TONIGHT...THEN WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH WHILE DISSIPATING THIS SAT. BASED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO SURGE INTO THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT BY SAT MORNING. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS N...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 0600 UTC TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED GAP WIND EVENT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AT 0000 UTC...A SHIP CALL SIGN ZCDG4 LOCATED AT 10.5N 86.7W REPORTED NNE WIND OF 32 KT. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE...WITH WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 18-00 UTC EACH DAY. GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FT N OF 6N. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. $$ GR