000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC FRI FEB 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 04N95W TO LOW 
PRES 1009MB NEAR 06N104W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N104W TO 
07N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 
07N TO 09N W OF 128W. A DOUBLE ITCZ IS NOTED S OF THE EQUATOR. 
THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXTENDS FROM 03S93W TO 02S98W. 
DURING MARCH AND APRIL OF EACH YEAR A DOUBLE ITCZ IS PRESENT IN 
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...ESPECIALLY 
DURING LA NINA EVENTS WHEN THE COLD EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE ARE STRONGER. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA. SW TO W WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION N 
OF 20N. A CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N121W WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 21N120W TO THE LOW THEN CONTINUING SE TO ABOUT 
11N114W. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING SOME 
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED E OF 
105W...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA.

ON THE SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 33N135W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 13N W OF 110W. SEAS 
OF 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 128W. 
ANOTHER AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL IS W OF 
A LINE FROM FROM 05N140W TO 10N128W TO 18N140W. BOTH AREAS OF 
SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SAT. 
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER THE 1856 ASCAT 
PASS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY FROM 08N 
TO 11N W OF 130W. 

A WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 06N104W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW 
HOURS AND IS MAINLY DISPLACED TO THE NE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS 
MAY REACH TO 8 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN 
BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING. THEN...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO 
DRIFT NORTH WHILE DISSIPATING INTO SAT. BASED ON THIS WEATHER 
PATTERN...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL 
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT LATE TONIGHT 
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY SAT MORNING. 
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
AROUND 06 UTC TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE...WITH WINDS 
BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 18-00 UTC EACH DAY.

GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS 
CONTINUE TO SURGE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS 
SHOWING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FT N OF 6N. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS  
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. 

$$
GR