000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC FRI FEB 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 07N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
07N93W TO 06N103W TO 07N120W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W 
OF 130W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N120W. AN 
AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 
110W AND 120W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE WITH SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 110W TO INCLUDE CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  

ON THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 35N131W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 18N W OF 118W. 
SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 116W AND 
130W. ANOTHER AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL 
ARE W OF A LINE FROM 20N140W TO 10N128W TO 06N140W. BOTH AREAS 
OF SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 
ELSEWHERE...A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 6N103W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW.  
 
GAP WINDS...                                                     

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF 
OF MEXICO TODAY. 20-25 KT GAP WINDS WILL COMMENCE THIS 
EVENING...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT 
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT WINDS 
AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY LATE SAT. COMPUTER 
MODELS...GFS AND NAM...ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS 
WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED GAP WIND EVENT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE...PARTICULARLY 
ON SAT MORNING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA 
WILL HELP TO FORCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA TODAY...THEN WILL DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS THE CARIBBEAN 
WINDS DIMINISH.

$$
FORMOSA