000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC FRI FEB 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES FROM 06N98W TO 06N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W 
AND 123W...AND W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH PRES OF 1027 MB LOCATED NEAR 40N128W 
TO BEYOND 30N140W. A SECOND RIDGE STRETCHES SE FROM THE SAME 
HIGH PRES CENTER ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 15N110W. 
PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A NARROW 
ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 12N W OF 130W. 
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE TRADES COMBINED WITH 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE BUILDING SEAS UP TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH N-NE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION W 
OF 110W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. AN AREA OF NW SWELL AT 
9-10 FT COVERS THE WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W. THIS 
SWELL EVENT WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE FRI NIGHT. THE 
HIGH PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TO A POSITION NEAR 
34N132W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF 
OF MEXICO FRI. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB WILL SETTLE IN 
BEHIND THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO WHILE LOWER 
PRESSURE IS S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH 20-25 KT 
WINDS COMMENCING FRI EVENING...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT LATE FRI 
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY SAT 
MORNING. THEN...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE 
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI EVENING AND WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT 
NORTH WHILE DISSIPATING INTO SAT. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS N...EXPECT 
WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THIS 
GULF BY LATE SAT. COMPUTER MODELS...GFS AND NAM...ARE IN 
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED GAP 
WIND EVENT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...
PARTICULARLY SAT MORNING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA 
WILL HELP TO FORCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THEN WILL DIMINISH 
THEREAFTER AS THE CARIBBEAN WINDS DIMINISH.

$$
GR