000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC THU FEB 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N94W TO 05N103W. ITCZ 
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N103W TO 07N124W TO 05N135W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 119W AND 122W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGH PRES OF 1027 MB LOCATED NEAR 33N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 14N110W. PRES GRADIENT S OF 
THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A NARROW ZONE OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 130W AND FROM 07N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. THE 1832 UTC ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH FEW 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THESE 
WINDS COMBINED WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE BUILDING SEAS OF 8 
TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N-NE WINDS DOMINATE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE REGION W OF 110W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
RIDGE. AN AREA OF NW SWELL AT 9-10 FT COVERS THE WATERS N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 
8 FT LATE FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SLIGHTLY 
WEAKENING.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF 
OF MEXICO FRI. 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE 
FRONT OVER S CENTRAL MEXICO WHILE LOWER PRESSURE IS S OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS COMMENCING FRI 
EVENING...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT 
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY SAT MORNING. THE FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI 
EVENING THEN WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH WHILE IT DISSIPATES INTO 
SAT. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT BY 
SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-
LIVED GAP WIND EVENT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA 
WILL HELP TO FORCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THEN WILL DIMINISH 
THEREAFTER AS THE CARIBBEAN WINDS DIMINISH TO THE N-NE OF THE 
AREA AS WELL.

$$
GR