000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC THU FEB 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N103W. THE  
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 05N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF A 
LINE FROM 08N107W TO 04N115W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 
114W...AND ALSO FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

1027 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE AREA W OF NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 40N129W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE-S FROM THE HIGH INTO 
THE AREA NEAR 32N132W TO 15N108W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N-NE 
WINDS DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 110W UNDER THE RIDGE. AN AREA OF 
NW SWELL AT 8-10 FT COVERS THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 26N115W 
TO 17N140W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE FRI 
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST TRADES UNDER THE RIDGE ARE LOCATED OVER THE 
W CENTRAL WATERS. THESE NE WINDS COMBINED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW 
SWELL TO PRODUCE 8-9 FT SEAS W OF A LINE FROM 17N140W TO 11N121W 
TO 02N140W. THESE SEAS WILL ALSO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE 
FRI NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF 
OF MEXICO FRI. 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE 
FRONT OVER S CENTRAL MEXICO WHILE LOWER PRESSURE IS S OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE FRESH TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS 
COMMENCING FRI EVENING...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT LATE FRI NIGHT 
INTO SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT AS THE STRONG WINDS 
ARRIVE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL AND 
SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL HELP TO FORCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THEN WILL DIMINISH 
THEREAFTER AS THE CARIBBEAN WINDS DIMINISH TO THE N-NE OF THE 
AREA AS WELL.

$$
LEWITSKY