000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192142
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC WED FEB 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N90W TO 04N100W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N100W TO 05N110W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
60 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N133W DOMINATES 
THE WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 113W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
HIGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS HIGH 
PRES SHIFTS NE TO A POSITION NEAR 38N128W. 
 
PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A NARROW 
ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 130W 
WITH 8 TO 9 FT SEAS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AND FEW SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE AREA OF  
TRADES WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ON THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 
KT AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE WATERS 
W OF 110W AND WILL COMBINE WITH NE SWELL IN THE AREA OF THE 
TRADE WINDS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WAVE 
PERIODS OF 18-19 SECONDS...SHOULD REACH THE FAR NW PORTION 
LATE FRI.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 7 FT. THESE MARINE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND DOWNSTREAM 
TO ABOUT 6N DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS 
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FUNNELS THROUGH 
THE GAP. THE WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
GR