000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED FEB 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 04N102W...THEN ITCZ FROM 
04N102W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N134W DOMINATES 
REGION N OF 13N AND W OF 110W. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD 
TONIGHT WHILE THE RIDGE UNDERGOES A REALIGNMENT W OF NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN 
TRADE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH FRI. 6-7 FT SEAS 
WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE NE PORTION OFF N BAJA CALIFORNIA... 
ASSOCIATED WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS WEST OF S CALIFORNIA 
AND THE LINGERING EFFECTS FROM GAP WINDS W OF GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 

PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A NARROW 
ZONE OF FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 130W WITH 8 TO 9 
FT SEAS. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND SHRINK 
THROUGH FRI. PRES GRADIENT ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS 
YIELDING NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
HIGH AND LOW PRES IN NW MEXICO LATE THU WILL BRIEFLY PRODUCE NNW 
WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND INCREASE SEAS TO 6 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF THE TIBURON BASIN.

$$
MUNDELL