000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190932 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED FEB 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N105W TO 06.5N136W TO BEYOND 07N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 106W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA...SPANNING FROM 155W TO 90W. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN IS BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM ENTERING N PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS FROM 28N TO 40N ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ANCHOR THIS PATTERN...WITH NARROW TROUGH FROM NEAR 26N118W AND GRADUALLY DISCONNECTING FROM S/W SWEEPING ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING S-SW TO MIDDLE TO UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 12N126W TO BROAD BASE NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 120W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS UPPER CYCLONE IS FAVORABLY VENTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CNVTN ALONG THE ITCZ MENTIONED ABOVE. THE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E-NE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...TPW IMAGERY INDICATES A ZONE OF INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE ITCZ SHIFTING W AND APPROACHING 110W THIS MORNING...AND INCREASED CNVTN ALONG THE ITCZ IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THESE FEATURES INTERACT. A RELATIVELY SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE W OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LIGHT STRATOFORM PRECIP MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE A FLAT RIDGE IS LOCATED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND PRODUCING STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 100W. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE MIDDLE LEVEL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THERE. A MODEST NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE PREVAILS THIS MORNING CENTERED ON A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N135W THAT EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 21N113W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A NARROW ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADEWINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 129W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT. THIS NARROW ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY W AND SHRINK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS YIELDING NNW WINDS AROUND 15 KT ATTM...WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS TO 20 KT. A MUCH STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS PRODUCED A BROAD ZONE OF NNW SWELL MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...AND IS YIELDING SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT FROM OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN BAJA WESTWARD TO 127W...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 9 FT AS FAR SOUTH AS 22N. NNW WINDS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY TO 20-30 KT AND WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE NNW MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL MOVING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF THE TIBURON BASIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE NNW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF THEN. A MODEST RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PROMOTING FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN...THAT ARE SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND PRODUCING ZONES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS PANAMA AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 05N...PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. RECENT SCATTEROMETER WINDS ALSO SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WILL LIKELY PEAK NEAR 25 KT BRIEFLY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY... THEN SHIFT SW TO S ON THURSDAY. $$ STRIPLING