000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE FEB 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W TO 05N93W TO 
06N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 07N125W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 
88W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN IS OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 133W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E 
OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 30N116W TO AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW 
AT 13N126W TO 1N126W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING 
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE TROUGH TO 115W TO INCLUDE 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 
115W. AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS E OF 115W TO INCLUDE CENTRAL 
AMERICA. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS NEAR THE NW CORNER AT 
32N132W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO 21N112W. NW SWELLS 
ARE ACROSS THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 25N115W TO 
19N140W WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. SIMILAR SWELL ARE FORECAST FOR WED 
AND THU OVER A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA. MORE TRADEWIND SWELL ARE 
OVER THE W AREA FROM 05N TO 14N W OF 127W WITH SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.  
SIMILAR SWELL ARE FORECAST FOR WED AND THU OVER A SLIGHTLY 
SMALLER AREA.

NE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE FROM 9N TO 11N E OF 90W...INCLUDING GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. WIND ARE FORECAST TO PULSE OVER 
THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SIX DAYS. 

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE N OF 04N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...INCLUDING 
GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST FOR WED. 

$$
FORMOSA