000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC TUE FEB 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0100 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N77W TO 02N81W TO 
05N90W TO 05N106W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N106W TO 
06N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 
NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 24 
HOURS...WITH A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SITTING NEAR 
34N130W. THE AREA COVERED BY FRESH NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ 
OVER W WATERS S OF THE HIGH HAS EXPANDED AS A RESULT. THIS FRESH 
BREEZE ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 136W. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
TO 20N127W TO 00N116W. A S-SW UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE TROUGH IS MOVING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT NORTHWARD. THIS 
MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY MANIFESTED AS MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS 
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 120W AND 123W N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND FROM 
15N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGION...BUT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS ALSO FOUND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W AND 
126W. 

LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W 
AND 115W ACCORDING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE ONLY 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OF NOTE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. THIS CONVECTION LIES UNDER 
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS INTO 
COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO. THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. AS A RESULT...THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY AND STRENGTH THROUGH EARLY WED. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TUE MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER 
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IN ADDITION TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO DRIVE A FRESH TO STRONG NE-E BREEZE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DOWNWIND TO 91W THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW A STRONG BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL NE 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS ABOVE 8 FT. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY WED...WITH THE SWATH OF 20-25 
KT WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO SHRINK COMPARED TO TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH WED MORNING... 
PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM 
NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT.

$$
SCHAUER