000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC MON FEB 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N78W TO 06N87W TO 05N105W. ITCZ FROM 
05N105W TO 07N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM 
SW OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 24 
HOURS...WITH A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SITTING NEAR 
33N135W. THE AREA COVERED BY FRESH NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ 
OVER W WATERS S OF THE HIGH HAS EXPANDED AS A RESULT. THIS FRESH 
BREEZE ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 135W. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED FROM YUMA ARIZONA TO 22N125W TO 
10N125W TO 00N110W. A S-SW UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
TROUGH IS MOVING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT NORTHWARD. THIS 
MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY MANIFESTED AS MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS 
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 115W AND 125W S OF 25N WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED 
SHOWER EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGION.

LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 115W 
ACCORDING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION OF NOTE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WAS SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM SW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W 
AND 87W. THIS CONVECTION LIES WITHIN THE AREA OF ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE AND UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS INTO COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN 
PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS A RESULT...THE EASTERN PORTION 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE 
OF PRECIPITATION.

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY AND STRENGTH THROUGH EARLY WED. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TUE MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER 
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IN ADDITION TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO DRIVE A FRESH TO STRONG NE-E BREEZE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DOWNWIND TO 92W THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW A STRONG BREEZE IN THE EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL NE 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS ABOVE 8 FT. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY WED...WITH THE SWATH OF 20-25 
KT WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO SHRINK COMPARED TO TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE TIME OF 
MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT.

$$
SCHAUER