000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC MON FEB 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N96W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
05N96W TO 07N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 104W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN IS OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 130W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E 
OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 30N119W TO 20N126W TO 8N125W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 
THE TROUGH TO 110W TO INCLUDE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 115W. AN AREA OF 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N E OF 115W TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA. 
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 105W.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS NEAR THE NW CORNER AT 
32N138W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO 26N115W. NW SWELLS 
ARE ACROSS THE AREA NW OF A LINE 30N120W TO 22N140W WITH SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT. SIMILAR SWELL ARE FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED OVER A 
SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA.  

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS 
EVENING. NLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST AGAIN FOR TUE MORNING.  

NE WINDS 20-30 KT ARE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS TO 11 
FT. WINS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20-25 KT ON TUE AND WED 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. 

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH 
SEAS TO 8 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUE. 

$$
FORMOSA