000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC MON FEB 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0100 UTC.                              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N83W TO 05N90W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 04N105W TO 06N125W BEYOND 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER N WATERS FROM 32N126W TO 
25N140W. THIS FRONT HAS USHERED IN NW SWELL...WITH SEAS TO 11 FT 
BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING WHILE SEAS OF 
8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE...REACHING THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PACIFIC COAST ON MON AND ARRIVING AT PUNTA 
EUGENIA MON NIGHT. SWELL FROM INCREASING NW WINDS OFF THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT 
RANGE ON TUE.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY THE FRONT OVER NW 
WATERS. CURRENTLY A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS NEAR 
33N131W...JUST N OF THE FRONT. NE TRADE WINDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED 
TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OVER W WATERS N OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS...WITH NE TRADE WIND SWELL NOW BELIEVED TO HAVE SUBSIDED 
BELOW 8 FT IN THE AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
BUILD BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT ON MON. THIS WILL INCREASE 
THE AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS AND ALLOW SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 08N 
TO 12N W OF 138W THAT ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 9 FT ON TUE AND 
EXPAND IN AREA TO 07N TO 14N W OF 132W BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 1850 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 25 
KT WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SINCE 
THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS WEAKENED. 
WINDS ARE NOW BELIEVED TO BE LESS THAN A STRONG BREEZE IN THE 
GULF WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS 
EXPECTED TO KICK IN EARLY MON MORNING...RAISING WINDS AND SEAS 
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY. 
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND EVENING MON 
AND PULSE TO A STRONG BREEZE IN THE MORNING HOURS TUE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER 
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 
DRIVE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS IN THE MORNING HOURS 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DOWNWIND TO 92W THROUGH THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW A 
STRONG BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT RESIDUAL NE SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS ABOVE 8 FT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 
11 FT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE TIME OF 
MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT.

$$
SCHAUER