000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN FEB 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER 
MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE COMBINATION OF THIS RIDGE AND THE LOWER 
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S HAS LEAD TO 
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. ASCAT PASSES AROUND 
04 UTC SHOWED WINDS OF 30-34 KT WHILE AN OSCAT PASS A COUPLE OF 
HOURS LATER ONLY HAD RAIN FLAGGED WIND BARBS OVER THE IMMEDIATE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH LOWER VALUES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
STILL APPEARS TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS 
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE PEAKING AT 11 FT WITH 
THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY MON 
AFTERNOON...PULSING BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS WITH THE HELP 
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 06N88W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 04N110W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 79W.

...DISCUSSION...

1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR 
28.5N128W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SE TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES 
MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ 
IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT 
FROM 02N TO 10N W OF 138W PER EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES. THE 
GRADIENT AND RESULTING TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATER 
TODAY ALTHOUGH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LINGER THE 
BORDER ALONG 140W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT ON MON...INCREASING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS AND ALLOWING SEAS 
TO 8 FT FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 137W...THEN EXPANDING TO THE AREA 
FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 133W WHILE BUILDING TO 9 FT BY TUE MORNING.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N131W TO 25N140W HAS A 
SET OF NW SWELL AT 8-11 FT BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
BY MON MORNING WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE TO THE SE...REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PACIFIC 
COAST ON MON AND ARRIVING AT PUNTA EUGENIA MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER 
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DOWNWIND TO 90W THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY 
THIS EVENING WITH A PLUME OF RESIDUAL NE SWELL OF 8-10 FT 
SHIFTING SW TO BETWEEN 88W AND 92W BY THEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN 
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...UP TO 30 KT...WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO UP TO 11 FT BY SUNRISE MON. ANOTHER LULL WILL OCCUR 
MON EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RETURNING LATE MON NIGHT 
INTO EARLY TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM  
NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY