000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT FEB 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TOWARD THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS RIDGE AND THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S HAS LEAD TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE 1600 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WINDS ARE NOW BELIEVED TO BE AS HIGH AS 30 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING AT 06 UTC SUN AND PERSISTING INTO SUN MORNING...DURING THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11-12 FT AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SUN EVENING WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY MON...DIMINISHING MON AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W TO 05N87W TO 03N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N98W TO 06N136W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 390 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT 29N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SW TO A SECOND HIGH NEAR 24N142W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 130W. SEAS TO 9 FT WERE OBSERVED EARLIER SAT AT 1700 UTC IN THIS AREA OF SUBSIDING TRADE WINDS SWELL BY AN ALTIMETER PASS ALONG 133W. THE GRADIENT AND RESULTING TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED AS A COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS AND ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT AGAIN IN WESTERN WATERS GENERALLY JUST N OF THE ITCZ. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W BY EARLY SUN MORNING WHILE NW SWELL TO 12 FT ARRIVES BEHIND IT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE...REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PACIFIC COAST BY MON AFTERNOON AND APPROACHING PUNTA EUGENIA MON EVENING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS SEEN BY THE 1514 UTC ASCAT-B PASS ON SAT. THE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE SUN MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR SUN AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BY EARLY MON MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11 FT AROUND SUNRISE SUN AND MON. GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA COMMENCING EARLY SUN MORNING AND PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUN AND MON DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT. $$ SCHAUER