000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152211 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT FEB 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. UPDATED FOR RECENT OSCAT PASS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE JUST S OF MONTERREY MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TOWARD THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. MEANWHILE...LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE N. THE COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS INDUCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF ACCORDING TO THE 1600 UTC OSCAT PASS. THESE WINDS SHOULD TO NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING AT 06 UTC SUN AND PERSISTING INTO SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11- 12 FT AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SUN EVENING WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY MON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N78W TO 05N86W TO 03N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N97W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 75 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 83.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT 25N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SW TO 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 130W. SEAS TO 9 FT WERE OBSERVED IN THIS AREA BY THE ALTIMETER PASS ALONG 133W AT 1700 UTC. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS...ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS AND ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT AGAIN IN WESTERN WATERS GENERALLY JUST N OF THE ITCZ. THAT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W BY EARLY SUN MORNING WHILE NW SWELL TO 12 FT ARRIVES BEHIND IT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE...REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST AND W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 25N125W TO 20N140W BY MON AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS SEEN BY THE 1514 UTC ASCAT-B PASS. THE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY SUN MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR SUN AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BY EARLY MON MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11-12 FT WITH THE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA COMMENCING EARLY SUN MORNING...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE TIME OF PEAK NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT. $$ SCHAUER