000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SAT FEB 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTING UP 
OVER EASTERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL EXTEND A RIDGE 
SE TOWARD THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. MEANWHILE...LOWER PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY MORE 
TO THE N. THE COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD INDUCE MODERATE TO FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO FRESH TO 
STRONG EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE 
TIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE 
IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING AT 06 UTC SUN AND 
PERSISTING THROUGH 18 UTC SUN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11-12 FT 
AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 
EARLY SUN EVENING WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE 
HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 05N88W TO 04N99W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N99W TO 06N120W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 121W AND 124W...AND ALSO FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W 
AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT 30N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE 
SW TO 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE 
ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 
FT FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 134W. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY 
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

THAT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES FROM 
30N137W TO 28N140W BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE NW SWELL OF 8 
TO 9 FT ARRIVES BEHIND IT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE 
TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE REACHING TO A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 
25N140W BY EARLY SUN MORNING WHILE BUILDING TO UP TO 12 FT NEAR 
30N135W...THEN REACHING TO A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 22N130W TO 
20N140W BY EARLY MORNING.

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER 
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. THE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE 
EARLY SUN MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE 
GRADIENT. A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR SUN AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER 
ROUND OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BY EARLY MON MORNING. SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO UP TO 11 FT WITH THE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON 
MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT BY EARLY MON MORNING.

$$
LEWITSKY