000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SAT FEB 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP 
OVER NE MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SE 
TOWARD THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. MEANWHILE...LOWER PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY MORE 
TO THE N. THE COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD INDUCE NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 
KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE TIGHT 
ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE 
IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT THEN ENDING LATE SUN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N85W TO 3N97W. ITCZ FROM 3N97W TO 6N110W TO 
7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDING FROM 32N127W TO 15N140W. A 90-100 KT JETSTREAM IS 
ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. A SHARP UPPER AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N1120W TO 
5N125W. ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 600 NM E 
OF THE TROUGH N OF 10N. EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N 
OF 25N W OF 135W STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR IS W 
OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH. 
ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 15N E OF 110W.

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUN.

$$
DGS