000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SAT FEB 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP 
OVER NE MEXICO BY SAT MORNING WHICH WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SE 
TOWARD THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. MEANWHILE...LOWER PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY MORE 
TO THE N. THE COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING 
AT 00 UTC SUN AND PERSISTING THROUGH 12 UTC SUN. SEAS WILL BUILD 
UP TO 12 FT AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N78W TO 05N85W TO 
04N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N97W TO 05N105W TO 
06N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1023 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 34N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S 
TO 29N126W THEN SE TO JUST OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. A 
SECOND RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM THE HIGH THROUGH NW WATERS AHEAD OF 
A STATIONARY FRONT PARKED JUST NW OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OVER WESTERN WATERS N 
OF THE ITCZ. NE TRADE WIND SWELL IS SUBSIDING IN THIS AREA...BUT 
AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 1958 UTC STILL SHOWED 8 FT SEAS ALONG 133W 
FROM 05N TO 13N. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN WHEN IT MOVES SW INTO THE 
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE 
INVIGORATED TO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW WATERS 
SAT AND DISSIPATE THERE SUN MORNING. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE FRONT WILL BRING SEAS TO 12 FT INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA BY SAT EVENING BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 130W. AN AREA OF BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 300 NM 
N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 10N125W SUN. THE AREA IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER 
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SAT MORNING WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE SUN 
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE TO FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA IN THE 
MORNING HOURS ON SAT...INCREASING TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-
25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ON SUN MORNING AS THE GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS.

$$
SCHAUER