000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC FRI FEB 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP 
OVER CENTRAL/INTERIOR MEXICO BY FRI MORNING WHICH WILL EXTEND A 
RIDGE SE TOWARD THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. MEANWHILE...LOWER PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY MORE 
TO THE N. THE COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING 
AT 00 UTC SUN AND PERSISTING THROUGH 12 UTC SUN. SEAS WILL BUILD 
UP TO 12 FT AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N77W TO 07N84W TO 
03N93W TO 04N96W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N96W TO 06N102W TO 05N110W TO 
07N121W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N127W TO BEYOND 06N140W. A TROUGH 
FROM 14N123W TO 07N126W LIES WITHIN THE BREAK IN THE AXIS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 450 NM E AND 
90 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 07N TO 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE 1023 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 33N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S 
TO 29N126W THEN SE TO JUST OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. A 
SECOND RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM THE HIGH THROUGH NW WATERS AHEAD OF 
A STATIONARY FRONT PARKED JUST NW OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OVER WESTERN WATERS N 
OF THE ITCZ. NE TRADE WIND SWELL IS SUBSIDING IN THIS AREA...BUT 
A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWS SEAS AS STILL TO 9 FT WITHIN THE 
AREA FROM 05N TO 17N W OF 129W. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN WHEN IT 
MOVES SW INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT 
IS EXPECTED TO BE INVIGORATED TO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT 
WILL ENTER NW WATERS SAT AND DISSIPATE THERE SUN MORNING. NW 
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING SEAS TO 12 FT INTO 
THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN MORNING BEFORE SEAS BEGIN 
TO SUBSIDE.

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 130W. THE SURFACE 
REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 14N123W TO 07N126W...UNDER 
AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 450 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THIS 
TROUGH FROM 07N TO 10N. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH 
OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 10N125W BY SUN AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY. THE AREA 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ASSOCIATED WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER 
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINLY 
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY SUN 
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE TO FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA IN THE 
MORNING HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
SCHAUER