000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC FRI FEB 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 
ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. BY FRI MORNING...1021 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER CENTRAL/INTERIOR MEXICO WHICH 
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SE TOWARD THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. MEANWHILE 
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ WILL LIFT 
SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE N. THE COMBINATION WILL BE A TIGHTENING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD INDUCE FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO 
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC STARTING AT 00 UTC SUN AND PERSISTING THROUGH 12 UTC 
SUN. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 11-12 FT AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 03N94W TO 04N98W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N98W TO 08N122W...THEN RESUMES FROM 
07N127W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 80W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PANAMA...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES FROM 32N126W TO 
07N130W...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING 
FROM 30N119W TO 10N102W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N121W 
TO 06N125W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 
123W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 11N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA.

1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 33N128W WITH 
RIDGING EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 27N140W. A COLD FRONT 
IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS REACHING FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W SAT 
MORNING...THEN WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE RIDGING MAINTAINS 
CONTROL OVER THE AREA. A SET OF ASSOCIATED NW SWELL AT 8-11 FT 
WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO 
THE SE THROUGH SUN MORNING.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 08N 
TO 15N W OF 136W COMBINED WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS RESULTED 
IN 8-9 FT SEAS IN THIS AREA. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 
TO MAINLY MODERATE LEVELS LATER TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS 
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TONIGHT AS THE WINDS LOWER.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL GUATEMALA WILL 
CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE TO THE SE ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER 
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

GULF OF PANAMA...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY 
OF PANAMA BY LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST 
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT IN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA...ALTHOUGH THE 06 UTC GFS INDICATED WINDS UP TO 
25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY