000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC THU FEB 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.                              
    

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W TO 08N85W TO 
04N95W TO 05N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N98W TO 
08N108W TO 06N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 05N E OF 
87W. 


...DISCUSSION...

THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 33N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR 20N110W. THE WINDSAT PASS FROM 
AROUND 1445 UTC SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER 
W WATERS SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND JUST N OF THE ITCZ. SEAS TO 9 
FT PRIMARILY IN NE TRADE WIND SWELL CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 130W AS OBSERVED BY A 1700 UTC 
JASON PASS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH FRI AS IT IS ENCROACHED UPON BY A COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY FOUND TO ITS NW....FURTHER DIMINISHING THE TRADE WINDS 
AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF NE SWELL. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SAT 
MORNING. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING SEAS TO 9 
FT INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD SAT AFTERNOON. 

SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 
15N130W IS TAPPING INTO DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLED 
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W AS SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN SEEN N OF THE ITCZ IN 
THE MOIST AREA S OF THE LOW HAS DIMINISHED AS THE STRONGEST 
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET HAS 
SHIFTED S OF THE POOLED MOISTURE. AN AREA OF MULTI-LAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM 
OF A LINE FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 128W TO 26N118W. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO DIP SOUTHWARD ABOUT 5 DEGREES ALONG 130W THROUGH 
SAT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION 
ALONG THE ITCZ HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION SEEN FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 05N E OF 87W. 
DIFFLUENCE HERE IS ATTRIBUTED TO AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT SPANS 
FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA TO A SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE JUST NE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THE RIDGE AXIS IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE HERE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...SO THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A 
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE OSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1800 UTC SHOWED 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT 
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUNRISE FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE ONLY A 
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE AT THE MOMENT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO 
BECOME A STRONG BREEZE FRI MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT 
ITS PEAK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON...BUT 
WILL AGAIN PULSE TO A STRONG BREEZE SAT MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER