000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131522 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU FEB 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... A LOW-END GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS WERE 35 KT WITHIN ABOUT 45 NM FROM THE COAST FROM THE 0640Z OSCAT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE. NO IN-SITU MEASUREMENTS OF SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHT HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE... THOUGH MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS A PEAK OF ABOUT 13 FT. THE EVENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE FORCING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD AIR WILL RECEDE LATER TODAY. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT IT WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DROP BELOW OUR 20-25 KT THRESHOLD BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TEHUANTEPECER WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH GALE FORCE AND SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 24 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 05N99W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N99W TO 08N111W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 87W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY SURFACE 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED AT 31N 129W. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE IS ONLY PRODUCING FREEZE BREEZE TRADEWINDS CURRENTLY...THOUGH THE LONG FETCH OF NE WINDS IS CAUSING 8 TO 9 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHTS. THESE WILL DROP BELOW OUR 8 FT THRESHOLD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER. JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXISTS. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRIEFLY REACH OUR NW CORNER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW OUR 20- 25 KT CRITERION...NW SWELL PEAKING AROUND 12 FT ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NW SWELL WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN WAVEHEIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE SAME FORCING FOR THE CURRENT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL KICK OFF A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT AS WELL BY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN AT FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENTLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS IS TYPICAL...HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO NOCTURAL DRAINAGE FLOW FORCING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXISTS AT FAIRLY LOW LATITUDES TODAY...EXTENDING FROM 28N129W TO 04N125W. WHILE THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...THERE IS NO SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CURRENTLY NOR IS ONE ANTICIPATED. THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION FOR THE WIND FIELDS AND PRIMARILY UPON THE GFS-FORCED MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION FOR THE WAVE FIELDS. $$ LANDSEA