000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC THU FEB 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.                              
  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SOUTHWARD ALONG 
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHED 
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PRESSURE 
PATTERN IS DRIVING STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS...WITH 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC RECENTLY INCREASING TO 
GALE FORCE. A 0408 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT AT THAT 
TIME EXTENDING 30 NM OFFSHORE. THIS GALE EVENT WILL BE SHORT 
LIVED...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 30 KT BY LATE 
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT RACES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH CHIVELA PASS WEAKENS. 
THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT ONLY 35 KT WITH 
SEAS TO 12 FT THU. N WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW A STRONG BREEZE 
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SUNRISE FRI.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N74.5W TO 04.5N78W TO 10N86W TO 05N96W. 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N96W TO 07.5N113W TO BEYOND 06.5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 
06.5N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED 
FROM 06.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 17N132W IS 
TAPPING INTO DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE 
ITCZ W OF 118W AS SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND FROM 06.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 
131W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY 
UPPER JET. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT 
OPENS INTO A TROUGH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PRECIPITATION THERE 
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ TO NEAR 130W OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 32N129W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR 15N108W. RECENT 
ASCAT PASSES SHOWED FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE SW OF THE HIGH... 
FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 131W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-9 FT. THE 
HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT IS 
ENCROACHED UPON BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FOUND TO THE NW OF THE 
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH THE 
TRADE WINDS AND SHRINK THE AREA OF NE SWELL. THIS FRONT IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI MORNING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED IN ADVANCE 
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO BRING GALE 
FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO ARE ONLY A MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE AT THE MOMENT 
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG BREEZE FRI MORNING AS THE 
COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT ITS PEAK.
 
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STRIPLING