000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121534
TWDEP 

TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN 
SLOPES SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG 
HIGH PRES IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN 
MEXICO. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO 
N TO NE 20-30 KT WINDS TO SEEP THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND OUT 
ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE 
TO MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT...BUT WILL 
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CULPRIT HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL 
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS THU. THE GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 25-30 KT THU AFTERNOON. 
WIND AND SEAS ARE TO DIMINISH TO WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT FRI MORNING. 
    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N93W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS  
FROM 06N93W TO 05N100W TO 06N110W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 81W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 
132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N132W. DIFFLUENT 
FLOW SE OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E WITH AXIS FROM 10N118W TO 
20N118W. A PLUME OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS FROM 10N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 126W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING 
NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL MEXICO WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. 
 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 100W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 90W TO COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE E PACIFIC E OF 100W...TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 
COSTA RICA...HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 
 
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA AT 
32N128W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 24N115W. ANOTHER RIDGE 
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO BEYOND 27N140W. NE TRADES OF 
20-25 KT FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 128W AND SEAS 08 TO 10 FT WILL 
SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH ON FRI NIGHT.   
FURTHER E...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW OR TROUGH WILL 
FORM FRI TO THE SW OF COSTA RICA NEAR 06N87W WITH CONVECTION.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT PULSE OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS 
TO 7 FT ARE EXPECTED ON FRI MORNING BASED ON BOTH THE GFS AND 
NAM MODELS.  
 
 
$$
FORMOSA