000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL 
MODELS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL 
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING LATE WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING 
OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. IN RESPONSE TO 
THIS...NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY 
WED EVENING. THIS FLOW...FURTHER ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL SURGE... 
WILL LEAD TO WINDS INTENSIFYING TO GALE FORCE WED NIGHT AND 
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 35 KT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT LATE WED NIGHT INTO 
THU.
    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 
09N83W TO 06N89W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N89W TO 05N100W TO 
05N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 135W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SW ACROSS NW 
MEXICO TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N120W. A CUT-OFF 
LOW IS CENTERED AT 18N130W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SE OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALSO ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. TO THE E OF 
THE LOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED BETWEEN 110W-123W. WESTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ALSO TRANSPORTING 
AN AREA OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE EASTWARD FROM 12N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 123W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 05N76W WITH 
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SWWD TO EQ87W. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED 
BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR...AND IS SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP CONVECTION 
TO ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 
100W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA AT 
33N129W WITH S RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N115W. ANOTHER RIDGE 
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO BEYOND 27N140W. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE 
SW U.S. IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT NW 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA N OF 
25N BETWEEN 115W-118W. SEAS ARE TO 9 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX 
WITH 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. THE 
PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN FURTHER WITH NW-N 5-10 KT WINDS 
EXPECTED EARLY WED. NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 
128W WILL SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM E TO W BY LATE WED NIGHT 
IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OF THE 1028 MB HIGH. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR NW 15-
20 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF 
THE GULF WITH SEAS TO 5 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN 
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS 
SOME SECTIONS. 
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NE 20-25 KT 
WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS OF 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AGAIN WED 
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO 
EARLY THU.
 
$$
FORMOSA