000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.                              
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL 
MODELS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL 
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING LATE WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING 
OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. IN RESPONSE TO 
THIS...NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS AND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY 
WED EVENING. THIS FLOW...FURTHER ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL SURGE... 
WILL LEAD TO WINDS INTENSIFYING TO GALE FORCE LATE WED NIGHT AND 
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 35 KT WITH SEAS TO 12 FT LATE WED NIGHT INTO 
THU.
    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA 
AT 10N84W TO 07N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A 
TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ AXIS. THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO 05N104W TO 
05N116W TO 05N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-121W...AND ALSO WITHIN 
60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-129W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SW ACROSS NW 
MEXICO TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N122W TO 26N131W. 
TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...A CUT-OFF LOW IS SITUATED AT 18N131W 
WITH A TROUGH SSW TO 07N136W TO 03N141W. TO THE E OF THE LOW AND 
TROUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED BETWEEN 110W-123W. WESTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO AND 
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IS 
TRANSPORTING A NARROW BAND OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE EASTWARD 
THAT CONSISTS OF MOSTLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 16N TO 25N E OF 
120W. THIS MOISTURE IS REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AT 18N131W IS HELPING 
TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 03N83W WITH AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND TO THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER 
AIR...AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 98W. 

AT THE SURFACE...STATIONARY HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB IS N OF THE 
AREA AT 34N128W WITH S RIDGE EXTENDING SE  TO 26N125W TO NEAR 
21N115W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO W OF 
THE AREA AT 27N140W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT NW 20-25 
KT OVER THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W-118W. SEAS ARE TO 9 FT 
WITHIN THIS AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH 
15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. THE PRES 
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN FURTHER WITH NW-N 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED 
EARLY WED. NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 128W WILL 
SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM E TO W BY LATE WED NIGHT IN 
RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OF THE 1028 MB HIGH. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS 
MORNING ALLOWING FOR NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT 
WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING 
TO 10-15 KT ACROSS SOME SECTIONS. 
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NE 20-25 KT 
WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS OF 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AGAIN WED 
AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO 
EARLY THU.
 
$$
AGUIRRE