000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110338 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE FEB 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W TO 07N87W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES SW TO 04.5N100W...THEN TURNS W THROUGH 05N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED JUST N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N129W TO 09N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N120W TO 11N123W TO 11N129W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING SW ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 20N95W TO A BASE OVER THE EPAC NEAR 19N102W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N113W...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A COLLAPSING CREST CURRENTLY AT 27N122W. AN NARROW BAND OF UPPER DEBRIS IS STREAMING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA JUST N OF THIS RIDGE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27N131W TO 29N113W THEN WIDENS AS IT CONTINUES E ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 16.5N131W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS INDUCED OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE MERGING WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE COMBINED DIFFLUENCE CONTRIBUTES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND AN OCCASIONAL TSTM...DEVELOPING WELL N OF THE ITCZ FROM 08-11N BETWEEN 120- 128W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS CONTINUING E IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED UPPER TROUGH...ROUGHLY FROM 12-19N BETWEEN 97-114W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 03N83W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR...AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 98W. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N132W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO A CREST LAST DETECTED BY SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 19N109W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W TO A CREST JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 32N145W. NW-N WINDS AT 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 113-118W..WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT IN NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH 15-20 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT FURTHER RELAXES WITH NW-N 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED EARLY WED WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY SAT. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT...WITH A SW-NW 5 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. NW WINDS AT 5 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE W COAST OF BAJA ON SUN. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...CURRENTLY NW 5-15 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TUE WITH NW 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH NW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS SETTING UP THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON SAT...WITH VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...VARIABLE WINDS AT 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED...EXCEPT FOR A 10-15 KT NORTHERLY SURGE LATE TUE MORNING. THE NEXT NORTHERLY 20-25 KT SURGE WILL BEGIN ON WED AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20-30 KT WED EVENING...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. THE NOCTURNAL SURGE SHOULD MAX AT 30 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE NOCTURNAL PULSE WILL MAX AT 30 KT ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NEXT NE-E SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AND LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE NOCTURNAL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AND REPEAT AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. $$ NELSON