000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102156 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON FEB 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W TO 05N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN TURNS W-NW THROUGH 04N95W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N132W TO 09N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N121W TO 10.5N121W TO 11.5N128W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING SW ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 20N97W TO A BASE OVER THE EPAC NEAR 17N106W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N119W...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST AT 28N120W. AN NARROW BAND OF UPPER DEBRIS IS STREAMING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27N133W TO 29N115W THEN WIDENS AS IT CONTINUES E ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 16N131W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS INDUCED OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE MERGING WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE COMBINED DIFFLUENCE CONTRIBUTES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND AN OCCASIONAL TSTM...DEVELOPING WELL N OF THE ITCZ ALONG ABOUT 11N BETWEEN 121- 128W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS CONTINUING E IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED UPPER TROUGH...ROUGHLY FROM 12-17N BETWEEN 98-111W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 02N82W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR...AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 100W. A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N132W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO A CREST LAST DETECTED BY SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 19N109W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W TO A CREST JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 32N145W. NW-N WINDS AT 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N E OF 117W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH SEAS OF 5- 8 FT IN NW SWELL. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA TO ABOUT 25N TONIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH 15-20 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT FURTHER RELAXES WITH NW-N 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED EARLY WED WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY SAT. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT...WITH A SW-NW 5 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. NW WINDS AT 5 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE W COAST OF BAJA ON SUN. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...CURRENTLY NW 5-15 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TUE WITH NW 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH NW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS SETTING UP THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON SAT...WITH VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE 10-15 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED...EXCEPT FOR A 10-15 KT NORTHERLY SURGE LATE TUE MORNING. THE NEXT NORTHERLY 20-25 KT SURGE WILL BEGIN ON WED AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20-30 KT WED EVENING...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. THE NOCTURNAL SURGE SHOULD MAX AT 30 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT WINDS CURRENTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO NEAR 10N88W WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. ANOTHER NE- E SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AND LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE NOCTURNAL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AND REPEAT AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. $$ NELSON